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Drop rate Magma Torkai - Scorching Shade Lucky Box

SalladinSalladin
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edited August 14, 2017 in Suggestions and Feedback
Hi,
I buy 5x Scorching Shade Lucky Box+1 = 5x 29 000 NX (145€) and I did not even see him. Is this all right ?!?!?

Comments

  • RudiRudi
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    edited August 15, 2017
    yeah it works as intended >:)
    ZuNami
  • RuniRuni
    Riders of Icarus Rep: 3,925
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    edited August 15, 2017
    Magma Torkai maybe has a chance of like 1% or so to get out of the box. So yes it can happen that you dont see it or that you see and get it twice within 10 boxes....Its just random luck.
  • YllmathirYllmathir
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    edited August 15, 2017
    Salladin wrote: »
    Hi,
    I buy 5x Scorching Shade Lucky Box+1 = 5x 29 000 NX (145€) and I did not even see him. Is this all right ?!?!?

    The question is: is the fact u have spent 145€ on a lottery ticket all right? :P
  • SalladinSalladin
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    edited August 15, 2017
    I do not like this system and I want to warn it.....
  • RuniRuni
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    edited August 15, 2017
    Lucky Boxes are random boxes where you can have luck or not ^^ i think everyone should know that ;-)
    Azymion
  • yvadimyvadim
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    edited August 15, 2017
    Yllmathir wrote: »
    Salladin wrote: »
    Hi,
    I buy 5x Scorching Shade Lucky Box+1 = 5x 29 000 NX (145€) and I did not even see him. Is this all right ?!?!?

    The question is: is the fact u have spent 145€ on a lottery ticket all right? :P

    this
    this is exactly why Nexon thinks game is doing great and there is no reason to change anything
    ZuNami
  • AellaeAellae
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    edited August 16, 2017
    If my math is correct, which it probably isn't but

    there's what, 11% chance that it's in the box (1 in 45 items), then a 1 in 5 chance to pick it if it's actually in the box, and if you miss that one, you have 1 more shot of 1 in 4?

    What is that % wise, to a math wizard out there?
  • yvadimyvadim
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    edited August 16, 2017
    @Aellae math is not enough here, that is why drawing numbers in a national lottery has higher chance of winning than getting a desired item in this game.
    Let's assume that items in the list for lucky box are equally weighed (which of course they are not, magma torkai being least weighed of course)
    Then getting one item in 5 out of 45 is 5/45 which is approximately 11%
    Also there are additional chances to get 2 items in the same box that would be 10/45*45 which is approximately 0.5%
    and so on for 3, 4 and 5 desired items in the box, which becomes insignificant.

    Now, you still have two chances (given that you have enough elluns) to draw the item as far as I understand.
    Lets assume that game is not cheating and items do not get shuffled somehow after you pick one, but before showing it to you.
    First attempt gives you 1/5 and 2nd 1/4 which equals 9/20 or 45% of getting the item that is already drawn.

    Then simply multiplying both probabilities we get (5*45+10)/45*45 * 9/20 we get roughly 5.2% of getting the item with all the former assumptions.

    This means that two 10+1 boxes would give you a 100% chance, which is not happening of course =) and that is due to items weighing (weight simply multiplies your chance by fraction and lowers overall probability for the item in this case) or cheating, which we have no way of verifying as the game never gives us numerical probabilities anywhere. Which is completely opposite to lottery where all the chances are transparent and fully calculable.

    ZuNami
  • AellaeAellae
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    edited August 17, 2017
    yvadim wrote: »
    @Aellae math is not enough here, that is why drawing numbers in a national lottery has higher chance of winning than getting a desired item in this game.
    Let's assume that items in the list for lucky box are equally weighed (which of course they are not, magma torkai being least weighed of course)
    Then getting one item in 5 out of 45 is 5/45 which is approximately 11%
    Also there are additional chances to get 2 items in the same box that would be 10/45*45 which is approximately 0.5%
    and so on for 3, 4 and 5 desired items in the box, which becomes insignificant.

    Now, you still have two chances (given that you have enough elluns) to draw the item as far as I understand.
    Lets assume that game is not cheating and items do not get shuffled somehow after you pick one, but before showing it to you.
    First attempt gives you 1/5 and 2nd 1/4 which equals 9/20 or 45% of getting the item that is already drawn.

    Then simply multiplying both probabilities we get (5*45+10)/45*45 * 9/20 we get roughly 5.2% of getting the item with all the former assumptions.

    This means that two 10+1 boxes would give you a 100% chance, which is not happening of course =) and that is due to items weighing (weight simply multiplies your chance by fraction and lowers overall probability for the item in this case) or cheating, which we have no way of verifying as the game never gives us numerical probabilities anywhere. Which is completely opposite to lottery where all the chances are transparent and fully calculable.

    They do get reshuffled when you pick that "open more" option, what does that do to the chances?

    I wish there was laws put in place that they had to be more transparent with the numerical probabilities.
  • yvadimyvadim
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    edited August 17, 2017
    Um, what I was trying to say is that while items are hidden, and you pick one, what guarantees that game is honest and shows you the item you've clicked? :D I'd say no matter what you click its just random out of 5 with weights applied again. This puts player through weighing system not 1 but 2 times. This is like, say m.torkai weight is not 1, which is fair, but 1/2. So first time, 5 items are drawn, the chance of drawing m.torkai would be 1/45*1/2 = 1/90, which is two times less probability than regular and is down to around 5.5% for 5 items drawn.
    Then, when you pick an item, the game will force the weight on you once again, so instead of getting 1/5 = 20% chance first time or 1/4 = 25% chance second time you'll get 1/5*1/2=10% and 12.5% correspondingly. :D This is how I understand this sh..y mechanic and I'd rather invest $100 into national lottery than here.

    shuffling remaining 4 cards for the second selection means you get your regular 1/4 chance rather than almost 100% chance if you've remembered the place from the first attempt.

    NB for all mods reading this post, I hereby consent editing this post *ONLY* after you post the REAL mechanic of the random generator of this game. Until then I find myself fully eligible to assume whatever I want and express my opinion based on what I've assumed on the grounds of my 1 year experience playing this game on a daily basis with all available classes.

    PS sh..y stands for shiny, as true as 30% in a 30% shiny tempering stone

    PPS developers of this game seem to provide GMs with the interface that configures weights rather than target % chance in a multi-layer random system. So one of the GMs obligatory job requirements would be proficiency in probability & statistics unless developers have provided LUTs to convert weights into target %.
    Lets say GMs judge that 5.2% is too high for a m.torkai chance and make a haphazard decision to lower it to 2.6%, so they apply weight of 1/2 to m.torkai as they have not completed p&s class. What happens in the case assumed above? Let's apply weights to (5*45+10)/45*45 * 9/20 two times, and now we are down to around 1.3%. So uneducated decision would lower 5.2% to 1.3% which is 4 times lower. You can do you own math if they decide to lower chances 3 times and put in 1/3 weight. Or if the system has 3 weighted layers. And this applies to all things in this game, like tempering or crafting or drops which is 4 layers for exalted gear - if you desire very high, 3 slot, double class stat on it - think again :D
    daeniSalladinZuNamiPonyExpressDerathus
  • daenidaeni
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    edited August 17, 2017
    This reminds me a the classic shell games you see on the streets of New York. All slight of hand and hidden. Only difference is that its done by code and algorithm. I doubt they will ever post the actual percentage you get for rare upon rare items. If they did, they wouldn't get anyone buying this. :D
  • SalladinSalladin
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    edited August 17, 2017
    yvadim wrote: »
    Um, what I was trying to say is that while items are hidden, and you pick one, what guarantees that game is honest and shows you the item you've clicked? :D I'd say no matter what you click its just random out of 5 with weights applied again. This puts player through weighing system not 1 but 2 times. This is like, say m.torkai weight is not 1, which is fair, but 1/2. So first time, 5 items are drawn, the chance of drawing m.torkai would be 1/45*1/2 = 1/90, which is two times less probability than regular and is down to around 5.5% for 5 items drawn.
    Then, when you pick an item, the game will force the weight on you once again, so instead of getting 1/5 = 20% chance first time or 1/4 = 25% chance second time you'll get 1/5*1/2=10% and 12.5% correspondingly. :D This is how I understand this sh..y mechanic and I'd rather invest $100 into national lottery than here.

    shuffling remaining 4 cards for the second selection means you get your regular 1/4 chance rather than almost 100% chance if you've remembered the place from the first attempt.

    NB for all mods reading this post, I hereby consent editing this post *ONLY* after you post the REAL mechanic of the random generator of this game. Until then I find myself fully eligible to assume whatever I want and express my opinion based on what I've assumed on the grounds of my 1 year experience playing this game on a daily basis with all available classes.

    PS sh..y stands for shiny, as true as 30% in a 30% shiny tempering stone

    PPS developers of this game seem to provide GMs with the interface that configures weights rather than target % chance in a multi-layer random system. So one of the GMs obligatory job requirements would be proficiency in probability & statistics unless developers have provided LUTs to convert weights into target %.
    Lets say GMs judge that 5.2% is too high for a m.torkai chance and make a haphazard decision to lower it to 2.6%, so they apply weight of 1/2 to m.torkai as they have not completed p&s class. What happens in the case assumed above? Let's apply weights to (5*45+10)/45*45 * 9/20 two times, and now we are down to around 1.3%. So uneducated decision would lower 5.2% to 1.3% which is 4 times lower. You can do you own math if they decide to lower chances 3 times and put in 1/3 weight. Or if the system has 3 weighted layers. And this applies to all things in this game, like tempering or crafting or drops which is 4 layers for exalted gear - if you desire very high, 3 slot, double class stat on it - think again :D

    Thank you, good explanation ^^ The same as with Refining stone ....
    Another problem is the Austere Transcending stone. There is a low drop rate (server settings) and Nexon puts it as a sales item.
  • EeiieeEeiiee
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    edited October 4, 2017
    I suddenly feel like paying out 90k nx for mine wasn't such a bad deal after all.
  • yvadimyvadim
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    edited October 4, 2017
    @Salladin btw one of the guildies got m torkai show up 3 times in 170 boxes, and got it once.
  • MaggieTheGreatMaggieTheGreat
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    edited June 11, 2018
    Yeah, the drop rate is very random. I only bought 6 boxes and got Magma Torkai out of my sixth one
  • CreamCream
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    edited June 11, 2018
    @MaggieTheGreat

    Necro-bumping is not permitted on these forums by its Code of Honor under any circumstance! This is really a dead topic with no community interest whatsoever. Follow the rules at all times, Rider!
This discussion has been closed.