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Closed ## Drop rate Magma Torkai - Scorching Shade Lucky Box

Salladin

Riders of Icarus Rep: 1,630

Posts: 88

Member
Hi,

I buy 5x Scorching Shade Lucky Box+1 = 5x 29 000 NX (145€) and I did not even see him.**Is this all right ?!?!?**

I buy 5x Scorching Shade Lucky Box+1 = 5x 29 000 NX (145€) and I did not even see him.

This discussion has been closed.

## Comments

The question is: is the fact u have spent 145€ on a lottery ticket all right? :P

this

this is exactly why Nexon thinks game is doing great and there is no reason to change anything

there's what, 11% chance that it's in the box (1 in 45 items), then a 1 in 5 chance to pick it if it's actually in the box, and if you miss that one, you have 1 more shot of 1 in 4?

What is that % wise, to a math wizard out there?

Let's assume that items in the list for lucky box are equally weighed (which of course they are not, magma torkai being least weighed of course)

Then getting one item in 5 out of 45 is 5/45 which is approximately 11%

Also there are additional chances to get 2 items in the same box that would be 10/45*45 which is approximately 0.5%

and so on for 3, 4 and 5 desired items in the box, which becomes insignificant.

Now, you still have two chances (given that you have enough elluns) to draw the item as far as I understand.

Lets assume that game is not cheating and items do not get shuffled somehow after you pick one, but before showing it to you.

First attempt gives you 1/5 and 2nd 1/4 which equals 9/20 or 45% of getting the item that is already drawn.

Then simply multiplying both probabilities we get (5*45+10)/45*45 * 9/20 we get roughly 5.2% of getting the item with all the former assumptions.

This means that two 10+1 boxes would give you a 100% chance, which is not happening of course and that is due to items weighing (weight simply multiplies your chance by fraction and lowers overall probability for the item in this case) or cheating, which we have no way of verifying as the game never gives us numerical probabilities anywhere. Which is completely opposite to lottery where all the chances are transparent and fully calculable.

They do get reshuffled when you pick that "open more" option, what does that do to the chances?

I wish there was laws put in place that they had to be more transparent with the numerical probabilities.

Then, when you pick an item, the game will force the weight on you once again, so instead of getting 1/5 = 20% chance first time or 1/4 = 25% chance second time you'll get 1/5*1/2=10% and 12.5% correspondingly. This is how I understand this sh..y mechanic and I'd rather invest $100 into national lottery than here.

shuffling remaining 4 cards for the second selection means you get your regular 1/4 chance rather than almost 100% chance if you've remembered the place from the first attempt.

NB for all mods reading this post, I hereby consent editing this post *ONLY* after you post the REAL mechanic of the random generator of this game. Until then I find myself fully eligible to assume whatever I want and express my opinion based on what I've assumed on the grounds of my 1 year experience playing this game on a daily basis with all available classes.

PS sh..y stands for shiny, as true as 30% in a 30% shiny tempering stone

PPS developers of this game seem to provide GMs with the interface that configures weights rather than target % chance in a multi-layer random system. So one of the GMs obligatory job requirements would be proficiency in probability & statistics unless developers have provided LUTs to convert weights into target %.

Lets say GMs judge that 5.2% is too high for a m.torkai chance and make a haphazard decision to lower it to 2.6%, so they apply weight of 1/2 to m.torkai as they have not completed p&s class. What happens in the case assumed above? Let's apply weights to (5*45+10)/45*45 * 9/20 two times, and now we are down to around 1.3%. So uneducated decision would lower 5.2% to 1.3% which is 4 times lower. You can do you own math if they decide to lower chances 3 times and put in 1/3 weight. Or if the system has 3 weighted layers. And this applies to all things in this game, like tempering or crafting or drops which is 4 layers for exalted gear - if you desire very high, 3 slot, double class stat on it - think again

Thank you, good explanation ^^ The same as with Refining stone ....

Another problem is the Austere Transcending stone. There is a low drop rate (server settings) and Nexon puts it as a sales item.

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